سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
mojtaba rostami; Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash
Abstract
Due to the strategic role of volatility and instability of crude oil prices and their effects on all countries of the world, different methods of modeling and forecasting are necessary. Over the past two decades, an extensive literature has emerged on various approaches to empirically modeling volatility ...
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Due to the strategic role of volatility and instability of crude oil prices and their effects on all countries of the world, different methods of modeling and forecasting are necessary. Over the past two decades, an extensive literature has emerged on various approaches to empirically modeling volatility in the crude oil market. In this research, WTI crude oil price volatility modeling, which is one of the most important types of crude oil in the market of this strategic commodity, is examined with six flexible stochastic volatility (SV) models. Then the experimental performance of these models is compared with each other using Bayesian methods. The findings of this study show that adding one jump in efficiency and leverage effect to the stochastic volatility (SVLJ) model greatly improves its performance compared to other models. According to the findings of this model, the stability of volatility in the WTI market is very high and on average one jump occurs in this market every year. However, this model shows that in 2020, two jumps in WTI returns occurred in April and May, which is a unique event. In addition, the correlation between the return jump component and the volatility jump (Merton correlation jump) is not confirmed in the WTI data. Also, due to the negative leverage effect, negative shocks have stronger volatility effects than positive shocks in the crude oil market.
Seyed Nezamuddin Makiyan; Ali Norouzi; Abutaleb Kazemi; Mohammadnabi Shahyki Tash; Parvaneh Zangiabadi
Abstract
This study aims at analyzing the energy intensity and also the effect of changes in the production technology on the efficiency of energy consumption in Iranian manufacturing sector. To this end, a regression method entitled the Translog Cost Equation Function is used to evaluate the energy consumption. ...
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This study aims at analyzing the energy intensity and also the effect of changes in the production technology on the efficiency of energy consumption in Iranian manufacturing sector. To this end, a regression method entitled the Translog Cost Equation Function is used to evaluate the energy consumption. The period of investigation is 1999- 2011. The results show that the energy intensity in the period of investigation is equal to 0.08 percent which indicates the effectiveness of this variable in the industrial sector. Findings also demonstrate that the technology had the lowest effect, while the small change in the price of energy (i.e. substitution and budgetary effects) had the highest effect on the energy intensity. This means that due to the structure of the industrial sector of the Iranian economy and the low price for energy as well as its adequate supply has led to the utilization of energy intensive components.
